Political Violence Overview 2026
Resources, facts, and what we know
After the third attempt on President Trump’s life, I’m seeing the news fill with faulty “false flag” conspiracies claiming that Trump himself orchestrated the attempt, and finger pointing as pundits try to figure out which side is committing more political violence. So unhelpful and so not useful.
My team at Carnegie (thank you Dalya!) helped to pull together this data from all the credible sources we could find to explain what is actually going on. Graphics and pdf below.
In short: political violence has moved from one side to the other of the ideological spectrum since the 1950s – extreme-right violence against civil rights workers sparked backlash and then normalization from the extreme left, whose violence grew in the 1960s and 1970s – then the extreme right grew again – more on this story here.
But the best way to understand what is happening today is that left/right ideology is breaking down. Instead, most people who commit political violence now are facing mental health challenges*, and are drawing from a mix of ideologies and positions – remember that the first Trump would-be assassin was also interested in shooting then-President Biden. Increasingly, political violence is committed by people who are angry about AI, corporations, pedophilia, and other issues that do not break down along a left/right spectrum.
Young people have long been the most supportive of political violence in America – but we now see that the most politically engaged are more likely to be supportive. It seems that those who are angry about our politics, but do not see a path to resolve issues through normal means, now believe that violence might be a solution – whether it’s killing the President or lashing out at the leaders of the insurance and health care system.
They are also looking for meaning in their lives, and importance – a sense that they are doing something that will make a difference in a world in which they feel they have little agency. This means that today’s assassins often have less in common with the left-wing Weathermen of the 1960s or the right-wing militia movement of the 1980s and 1990s, and more in common with school shooters who are driven by a sense of nihilism and hopelessness.
What can be done? Some suggestions are at the end of this post. Most crucially, it is essential to get normal politics working again, and to show people – especially young people – that they can make change through normal political means. Short of that, this violence is going to continue.
*Most people with mental health difficulties do not commit violence. But of the small group of people who commit political violence, the majority are facing mental health challenges or breakdowns.
Download PDF here (citations below):
If you’re interested in my other writings on political violence, I suggest these articles:
America Can Still Stop the Cycle of Political Violence
Financial Times | September 14, 2025How to Prevent Political Violence
Journal of Democracy | September, 2024
Political Violence in the United States Is Rising–and It Might Be Up to Americans to Say “Enough!”
Just Security | July 19, 2024
Polarization, Democracy, and Political Violence in the United States: What the Research Says
Carnegie Endowment | September 5, 2023The Rise of Political Violence in the United States
Journal of Democracy | October 2021
More thoughts to come on the events on this weekend soon, but I wanted to get these resources out asap.
Footnotes:
Definition adapted from Brazilian think tank Terra de Direitos and Justiça Global.
“Threats and Harassment Dashboard,” CivicPulse and Bridging Divides Initiative, 2025, https://www.civicpulse.org/threats-harassment; William Braniff, “Written Testimony,” before the U.S. Senate Committee on the Judiciary, Subcommittee on the Constitution, hearing on “Politically Violent Attacks: A Threat to Our Constitutional Order,” October 28, 2025, https://www.judiciary.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/4a3850cc-9186-4271-fe98-9caebcd5b632/2025-10-28-PM_Testimony_Braniff.pdf, START data showed a 34.5% increase in terrorism and targeted violence events in the first eight months of 2025 compared to the first eight months in 2024.
FBI Uniform Crime Reporting Program, “Expanded Homicides Reported in the United States,” FBI Crime Data Explorer, updated February 15, 2026, https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/LATEST/webapp/#/pages/explorer/crime/shr.
Brian Michael Jenkins and Bruce R. Butterworth, “Update on Vehicle Rammings: Attackers, Frequency, Lethality, and Mitigation Measures,” Mineta Transportation Institute, San José State University, September 2025, https://transweb.sjsu.edu/sites/default/files/2557-Vehicle-Ramming.pdf.
“Comparison of FBI Hate Crime Statistics (2020-2000),” Anti-Defamation League, accessed February 8, 2024, https://adl.org/sites/default/files/pdfs/2022-05/FBI%20Hate%20Crime%20Statistics%20Comparison%202000-2020.pdf; “2022 FBI Hate Crimes Statistics,” U.S. Department of Justice Community Relations Service, U.S. Department of Justice, updated October 30, 2023, https://www.justice.gov/archives/crs/highlights/2022-hate-crime-statistics; “FBI Releases 2024 Hate Crime Statistics,” U.S. Department of Justice, updated September 24, 2025, https://www.justice.gov/hatecrimes/hate-crime-statistics.
“The Exit Interview,” Future Caucus, 2026, https://futurecaucus.org/the-exit-interview; “Survey of Local Elected Officials on Threats and Harassment: Q3 2025,” Bridging Divides Initiative, December 11, 2025, https://bridgingdivides.princeton.edu/updates/2025/survey-local-elected-officials-threats-and-harassment-q3-2025.
“Protective Investigations - Threat Statistics,” U.S. Marshals Service, February 19, 2026, https://www.usmarshals.gov/what-we-do/judicial-security/protective-investigations-threat-statistics; Rachel Schilke, “Serious Threats Against Federal Judges Spiked Over 50% Since Last Year,” Washington Examiner, February 13, 2024, https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/justice/2854848/marshals-service-serious-threats-federal-judges-2023/; Jen Armstrong, “Emerging Threats and How to Stay Safe,” Judicial Security Division, US Marshals Service, https://www.nawj.org/uploads/files/annual_conference/2024-annual-conference/judicialsecurity-671f9d17af5b7.pdf.
Paul D. Irving, “Letter to Federal Election Commission Chairman Steven T. Walther,” Office of the Sergeant at Arms, U.S. House of Representatives, June 21, 2017, https://www.fec.gov/files/legal/aos/83377.pdf; “USCP Threat Assessment Cases for 2024,” United States Capitol Police, February 3, 2025, https://www.uscp.gov/media-center/press-releases/uscp-threat-assessment-cases-2024; Incident numbers include concerning statements and direct threats against members of Congress, their family, and their staff, investigated by the USCP’s Threat Assessment Section; Andrew Solender, “Threats Against Members of Congress Skyrocketed in 2025,” Axios, https://www.axios.com/2026/01/28/threats-congress-capitol-police-omar-frost.
Shuhan Wang, “The Escalating Threats of Doxxing and Swatting: An Analysis of Recent Developments and Legal Responses,” The National Association of Attorneys General, August 12, 2025, https://www.naag.org/attorney-general-journal/the-escalating-threats-of-doxxing-and-swatting-an-analysis-of-recent-developments-and-legal-responses/.
Nathan Doctor et al., “‘Tick Tock Traitor:’ The Rise of Violent Rhetoric Targeting US Public Officials,” Institute for Strategic Dialogue, February 3, 2026, https://www.isdglobal.org/digital-dispatch/tick-tock-traitor-the-rise-of-violent-rhetoric-targeting-us-public-officials.
“Survey of Local Elected Officials on Threats and Harassment: Q2 2025,” Bridging Divides Initiative, September 1, 2025, https://bridgingdivides.princeton.edu/updates/2025/survey-local-elected-officials-threats-and-harassment-q2-2025; “Survey of Local Elected Officials...Q3 2025.”
Ned Parker and Peter Eisler, “Political violence in polarized U.S. at its worst since 1970s,” Reuters, August 9, 2023, https://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/usa-politics-violence/; Daniel Byman and Riley McCabe, “Left-Wing Terrorism and Political Violence in the United States: What the Data Tells Us,” CSIS, September 25, 2025, https://www.csis.org/analysis/left-wing-terrorism-and-political-violence-united-states-what-data-tells-us; Michael Jensen and Amy Cooter, “Correctly Assessing Left-Wing Terrorism and Political Violence in the United States,” Just Security, October 21, 2025, https://www.justsecurity.org/122278/correctly-assessing-left-wing-terrorism-and-political-violence-in-the-united-states/.
Alisa B. Miller et al., “The Roles of Trauma and Mental Health in Preventing Domestic Radicalization and Violent Extremism,” NIJ Journal 285, June 2024, https://nij.ojp.gov/topics/articles/roles-trauma-and-mental-health-preventing-domestic-radicalization-and-violent.
Jensen and Cooter, “Correctly Assessing Left-Wing Terrorism and Political Violence in the United States.”
Katherine Keneally and Cody Zoschak, “The 2025 Annual Review of Plots and Attacks Across the US,” Institute for Strategic Dialogue, March 10, 2026, https://www.isdglobal.org/publication/2025-annual-review-plots-attacks-across-us/.
“Accelerated Transgressions in the Second Trump Presidency: Bright Line Watch February 2025 Survey,” Bright Line Watch, February 2025, https://brightlinewatch.org/accelerated-transgressions-in-the-second-trump-presidency.
Maanvi Singh et al., “2025 was ICE’s deadliest year in two decades. Here are the 32 people who died in custody,” The Guardian, January 4, 2026, https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/ng-interactive/2026/jan/04/ice-2025-deaths-timeline.
Singh et al., “2025 was ICE’s deadliest year in two decades. Here are the 32 people who died in custody.”
Ted Hesson, “Eleven people died in US immigration custody this year, ICE says,” Reuters, 9 March, 2026, https://www.reuters.com/world/eleven-people-died-us-immigration-custody-this-year-ice-says-2026-03-09/.
Jennifer Mascia, “How Many People Have Been Shot in ICE Raids?” The Trace, updated February 23, 2026, https://www.thetrace.org/2025/12/immigration-ice-shootings-guns-tracker.
Kieran Doyle, “Confrontations between ICE and protesters: How does Minnesota compare to other states?” Armed Conflict Location & Event Data, January 22, 2026, https://acleddata.com/report/confrontations-between-ice-and-protesters-how-does-minnesota-compare-other-states; “Key Political Violence and Resilience Trends From 2025,” Bridging Divides Initiative, February 11, 2026, https://bridgingdivides.princeton.edu/key-political-violence-and-resilience-trends-2025.
“ADL H.E.A.T. Map,” Anti-Defamation League, 2026, https://www.adl.org/resources/tools-to-track-hate/heat-map.
“Accelerated Transgressions in the Second Trump Presidency: Bright Line Watch February 2025 Survey.”
Campaign Zero, “Mapping Police Violence,” Mapping Police Violence, February 18, 2026, https://mappingpoliceviolence.org.
“The Exit Interview.”
“Survey of Local Elected Officials...Q3 2025.”
“The Exit Interview.”
“Threats and Harassment Dashboard.”
“The Exit Interview.”
Cathy Buerger, “Speech as a Driver of Intergroup Violence: A Literature Review,” Dangerous Speech Project, June 16, 2021, https://www.dangerousspeech.org/libraries/speech-as-a-driver-of-intergroup-violence-a-literature-review.
“Accelerated Transgressions in the Second Trump Presidency;” David Montgomery, “What Americans Really Think About Political Violence,” YouGov, September 12, 2025, https://yougov.com/en-us/articles/52960-charlie-kirk-americans-political-violence-poll; Samantha L. Moore-Berg et al., “Exaggerated meta-perceptions predict intergroup hostility between American political partisans,” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, U.S.A. 117 (26) 14864-14872, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2001263117 (2020).
Ellyn Maese and Zacc Ritter, “Youth, Loneliness and Political Violence in the U.S.,” Gallup, December 3, 2025, https://news.gallup.com/poll/697745/youth-loneliness-political-violence.aspx.
“Preventing Youth Radicalization: Building Resilient, Inclusive Communities,” SPLC and PERIL, 2022, https://www.splcenter.org/resources/guides/peril/; “Assessments & Impact,” SPLC and PERIL, 2025, https://www.splcenter.org/resources/guides/peril-assessments-impact; Jon Roozenbeek and Sander van der Linden, “The Fake News Game: Actively Inoculating Against the Risk of Misinformation,” Journal of Risk Research, 22(5), 570–580 (2019), https://doi.org/10.1080/13669877.2018.1443491; Cecilie S. Traberg, Jon Roozenbeek, and Sander van der Linden, “Psychological Inoculation against Misinformation: Current Evidence and Future Directions,” The ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, May 5, 2022, https://doi.org/10.1177/00027162221087936.
Thea Sebastian and Hanna Love, “How States Can Lead on Community Safety: Five Recommendations for Preventing and Reducing Violence,” The Brookings Institution, May 20, 2025, https://www.brookings.edu/articles/how-states-can-lead-on-community-safety-five-recommendations-for-preventing-and-reducing-violence/.
Tal Kopan and Jim Puzzanghera, “‘I hope they blow your head off’: Violent threats pour into congressional offices, and it’s getting worse.” The Boston Globe, April 15, 2026, https://web.archive.org/web/20260415143935/https://apps.bostonglobe.com/2026/04/nation/threats-to-lawmakers-rising.
Gowri Ramachandran, “Intimidation of State and Local Officeholders,” Brennan Center for Justice, January 25, 2024, https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/research-reports/intimidation-state-and-local-officeholders.
“Communicating on Rising Threats to Public Servants,” report by PerryUndem prepared for the Foundation for Public Service (FPS), a fiscally sponsored project of Global Impact and key partner of the Public Service Alliance (PSA), February 2026.
I find this so invaluable. Thank you so much.
This is so helpful. Thank you for shedding light on the issue.